DAVID S. KERR / Stafford County Sun
Published: March 27, 2008

State turnout in last month's Democratic presidential primary election, which exceeded a record 1 million voters -something Democrats had never done before in a primary - only bolstered that feeling. Now, many Democrats, with Gov.

Tim Kaine leading the cheering squad, are talking openly about the possibly of carrying the Commonwealth for the Democratic presidential nominee in November.

This kind of enthusiasm has proven surprisingly contagious. However, while such a political shift may not be impossible, actually doing so in Virginia would represent something of a minor political miracle.

But in politics there is one important thing to remember. While miracles are rare, they do happen from time to time.

However, for the Democrats, history is not working in their favor. Since the end of World War II, Virginia has voted for a Democrat for President on only two occasions and the most recent time was 44 years ago.

However, there have been a few elections where they came close. Jimmy Carter, running on his southern roots, did surprisingly well in 1976 and later, in 1992 and 1996, with Ross Perot in the race, and the vote split three ways, Bill Clinton managed a surprisingly strong second.

At the same time, there is another lesson to consider regarding the state's behavior in national elections. In a sense, the state has two personalities. The 1980s are a good example.

For 12 years, the Democrats held all of the state's top offices in Richmond, a U.S. Senate Seat and a sizable majority in both houses of the General Assembly. They effectively ran the state. However, during this same period Virginia overwhelmingly supported the GOP nominees for President.

Often, sensing the state's conservative national mood, Democratic office holders would only shyly endorse the party's national ticket. What this means is that the Commonwealth is a conservative state and Democrats, to win, usually must walk a fine line.

Today's Virginia Democrats, the envy of red state Democrats all over the country, have found that if they focus on state issues, like transportation and schools, they can win in statewide elections.

However, recently, the party has shown some unexpected strength in contests that usually focus on national issues. In 2006, helped along by a hapless GOP campaign, and a profound national swing against the Republicans, Democrat Jim Webb defeated George Allen. And now, with an open Senate seat, the Democrats sense another victory.

However, should Mark Warner, the Democratic nominee, win this race as many expect, his victory will be based, more than likely, on the record he achieved while serving as Governor. National issues, particularly his ties to the Democratic ticket, are not likely to be his key selling points.

At the moment, thinking of Virginia as being in the Democratic column on election night 2008 is a bit far-fetched. However, this year there is more substance than just some spirited stump speeches.

As recently as 2000, Fairfax, the state's largest and most vote-rich county, was considered a GOP-leaning swing area. In 2000 the county chose George Bush over Al Gore, but in 2004, in a transformation that shows how dramatically the area is changing, Fairfax voted for John Kerry.

But to win statewide requires more than Fairfax. A winning combination for the Democrats, as shown in 2005 and 2006, includes not only a big margin in Washington's suburbs, but also requires that they carry the outer suburbs, while at the at the same time, at least make a credible showing in the normally conservative rural regions.

Virginia Democrats seem to have found the right combination to win statewide races and they are the envy of red state Democrats everywhere.

But applying that formula to a national Democratic candidate, one likely to wear a liberal as opposed to a moderate label, and a race where the issues aren't limited just to the Commonwealth, remains an entirely different story.

Still, the electoral calculus and the Commonwealth's demographics have changed enough that if I were a Republican strategist I wouldn't assume, as was the case in times past, that Virginia is a guaranteed GOP win.

David S. Kerr is an Aquia resident and a former member of the Stafford County School Board. Contact him at info@stafford countysun.com.

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