KERR: The fall and rise of Virginia’s Democrats

DAVID S. KERR / Stafford County Sun
Published: January 30, 2008

Probably the first real sign of trouble was in the 1991 House of Delegates and State Senate elections. The Democrats, in control of both chambers for more than a century, watched as their once mighty majorities got precariously thin.

Then there was Republican George Allen's winning the governor's seat in 1993. That was a turning point. After three consecutive sweeps of all the state's top jobs in Richmond, he routed the Democrats. Then in 1997, in spite of high hopes, they again lost the governor's race. What's more, for the first time ever, the Republicans also won the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. But worse news was yet to come.

The GOP, continuing its steady climb, took control of the House of Delegates and State Senate and in 2000, and leveraging their new power, redrew the House and Senate districts to their liking. With the newly designed districts, the Democrats saw their numbers in the House dwindle to an anemic 34, while their numbers in the Senate dipped to the fewest in the party's history.

That was bad enough, but alas, the bad news kept coming when in 2000 George Allen knocked off Chuck Robb, the state's lone remaining Democratic statewide office holder. There was, to some, a question as to whether or not the Democratic Party in Virginia was still relevant. It was a reasonable question, but in politics, fortunes can change quickly, a lesson the winners sometimes forget, and that's what happened to the Democrats.

The first change in the wind, which some argued at the time was just an aberration, was Mark Warner's victory for governor in 2001. Losing to him stung the GOP, but they consoled themselves with their two U.S. Senators and big majorities in both Houses. Warner, for his part, recognizing that he was a Democrat in charge of a Republican state, governed from the middle and left office with one of the highest popularity ratings ever. Also, right on his heels, Tim Kaine, a Democrat, won a come-from-behind election in 2005. The GOP, once again, while disappointed, wasn't too distressed. These things happen, they told themselves. They might have been more worried had they known worse was to come.

In 2006, in one of the most bizarre and surprising meltdowns in political history, George Allen lost his U.S. Senate seat. Once again, many said it was a fluke. But there were others who openly began to worry about the Republican Party's dominant position in the Old Dominion. Things last year offered some evidence that these setbacks were more than isolated occurrences. Last year, the GOP lost the State Senate and could now count ten new seats since their collapse in 2001. At the same time, candidate Mark Warner is a favorite to replace retiring Senator John Warner this fall. If he does win, which seems likely, it will be the first time since 1970 that Virginia has had two Democratic Senators.

None of this means that the state is turning blue, but there has been a change in the political winds. The Democrats have made dramatic gains all over Virginia. Their biggest successes have been in Northern Virginia, particularly Fairfax, but even in the outer suburbs, once the unchallenged bastion of the GOP, the Democrats have managed to make substantial gains.

The Democrats, as they enjoy their winning streak, should also thank the Republicans. The fight between the Republican Party's conservative and moderate wings was a major factor in their losing the State Senate. Also, it was infighting that prompted Mark Warner's strongest potential GOP opponent, Congressman Tom Davis, to abandon his campaign for the GOP nomination.

The Democrats are enjoying the situation; that's hard to argue. But there is a word of caution. Virginia's conservative tradition is strong. The GOP, with a good candidate in 2009 could win the Governor's mansion, while at the same time it's a stretch to see how any of the Democratic candidates for President could win the Commonwealth next fall. But so far, in several races the Democrats have beaten the odds. They're on a roll and in politics that's always a decisive advantage.

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